Donald Trump has announced a 25 percent tariff on all cars and trucks imported from the European Union, claiming the bloc failed to honour a trade agreement negotiated with Washington. “Build them here!” he added, in the helpful tone of a man who has never built anything more complex than a golf course.

This is not the opening shot. The 25 percent rate was already in place before a US-EU trade deal last August brought it down to 15 percent. Today’s announcement tears up that reduction. Brussels is not surprised. It has been watching Washington do this before: just days after reaching a deal with the United Kingdom, Trump reimposed tariffs on British steel and aluminium anyway. The EU took note.

Sitting ready is 93 billion euros in retaliatory tariffs, held back since the summer truce. Behind that sits the Anti-Coercion Instrument, the trade bazooka adopted in 2023 and never yet fired, which allows the EU to restrict American investments and strip intellectual property protections from US firms operating in Europe.

The numbers at stake are not small. European manufacturers export around 56 billion euros worth of vehicles to the United States every year. Germany and Italy are most exposed. Oxford Economics estimated German automotive exports would fall by over seven percent under precisely this scenario. Nearly 14 million European jobs are tied to the industry.

The EU has loaded the weapon. It is now waiting to see whether it needs to pull the trigger.

Gandalv / @Microinteracti1