Was talking to a sellside analyst at the cybercab event.

He was all: “ Robotaxi, meh, but I really think the humanoid robot story is what’s promising here.”

And I’m: “can you even math?!?”

On a first order estimate I think Tesla will need to throw $100 to $200 billion into AI compute in order to solve humanoid robot commercialization.

And it will be great money spent!

And Robotaxi should kick off plenty of cashflow to fund it!

And it will be so tempting to institutions to just take that cashflow and pocket it.

There’s a reason ISS et al don’t want to cede additional control to @elonmusk

They’re worried he might actually spend the money to make Optimus work.

They’d be fine with an ongoing semi-inexpensive science project—a story dancing on the horizon of reality—while they can collect rent on the Robotaxi platform. Wall Street loves the version of Apple that doesn’t take big swings.

But it will take extreme grit, dedication and capital to make Optimus really work. Not for the faint of heart.

Without @elonmusk Tesla would almost inevitably become faint of heart.

There is a pretty small execution window here, and Tesla shareholders (and the world) need Elon to maximally push.

You either want sustainable abundance (and all of the fruits that ripen in that future) or you sit back, sated to sup from a dominant Robotaxi strategic platform’s teat.

I can say with some certainty that institutional shareholders would happily opt for the latter. The cashflow in hand is too big to forego, ROIC be damned.

Our future really does depend on the will of the individual holder.

If you want the future that we all deserve then you double down on Elon driving Tesla forward

https://t.co/Ix8sTrGbjc