Xi markets himself as a great leader but since his ascent to the throne he has torn up the social contract of the reform and opening era and replaced it with dramatically increased censorship and repression. Contrary to the many Hasan Pikers who love the taste of CCP Kool Aid, the mood in China has soured alot. And useful white idiots would know that if they understood Chinese.

Youth unemployment is high, marriage and birth rates are dropping, and there’s huge pressure on the real estate market which is where most Chinese household wealth is stashed. Xi likely views the annexing of Taiwan as the key to his legacy and was hoping he could take it quietly. Unfortunately there’s a very narrow chance of that working out in his favor; he cannot afford to take the kind of losses Putin did in Ukraine. He knows his best chance of doing this is by using grey-zone pressure tactics to create a fait accompli that nobody dares challenge due to fear of escalation.

Here’s where Takaichi’s comments come in. The US is treaty-bound to assist Japan in the event of an armed conflict. By signaling that Japan would be involved in a Taiwan conflict, she’s also making the USA’s potential role much clearer. That is bad news for Xi. His own subordinates likely understand how dangerous such a conflict would be. Aligning yourself with a despot is only a winning move only if he stays in power; if he doesn’t, your best case scenario is jail.

The CCP values primarily the stability of its rule and a protracted or even escalatory war with the USA would be among the most destabilizing undertakings possible. We can’t know for sure, but Xi's recent purges of even his own hand-picked subordinates could be a sign that his brinksmanship has spooked many beneath him. The threats to “cut off heads” and other bellicose rhetoric, Xi’s sudden (and very rare) call to Trump, all seem to support one conclusion: Xi never had alot of options to work with, and yet another door just slammed shut in his face. The result has been a fit of impotent rage.