Summary of @elonmusk’s 44 minute interview at the @allinsummit:

Government:
• Elon hasn’t been back to DC since May, “The Government is basically unfixable.”
• “If AI & Robots don’t solve the National Debt, we’re toast.”

Optimus:
• Tesla is finalizing the design of Optimus Gen 3. “It’s going to be a very remarkable robot.”
• Optimus Gen 3 will have the manual dexterity of a human.
• Optimus Gen 3 will have an AI mind that can navigate, and comprehend reality.
• There is no supply chain for humanoid robots, Tesla is making everything from scratch. It requires a lot of vertical integration.
• All of Optimus’ actuators are made in-house by Tesla. There are 26 actuators, per arm.
• Elon reiterates: “If Optimus is successful, it will be the biggest product, ever.”
• Production Cost of Optimus, once 1M units/year are achieved is around the $20,000 range.
• The AI chip for Optimus will be expensive, potentially $5-6K , maybe more.
• Price of Optimus will be a function of demand.
• Tesla had to design Optimus’ every electric motor, gearbox, and the controlling electronics from scratch.
• Creating Optimus is harder than making Model S/3/X/Y/CT, but not harder than Starship.
• The forearms and hands of Optimus are majoirty of engineering difficulties of the entire robot.
• Optimus LLM will be included, no added subscription.

AI4, AI5, AI6 & FSD:
• Tesla is currently finalizing the design for AI5. It will be an immense jump from AI4.
• AI5 will be 40x better than AI4 in some metrics.
• Tesla is working so closely on the AI Hardware, and Software this time around. Both teams are co-designing the chip.
• AI5 has 8x more commute than AI4.
• AI5 has 10x more memory than AI4.
• AI5 has 5x more memory-bandwidth than AI4.
• Elon is confident AI4 chips will still be able to achieve self-driving safety that is at least 2-3x of a human, maybe even 10x.
• FSD 14 will be released in a few months.
• V14 will be the biggest upgrade to Tesla’s software since V12.
• FSD 14 will make the car feel sentient, by the end of the year.

Starlink:
• New spectrum deal will allow SpaceX to deliver high-bandwidth connectivity directly from the satellites, to the phone.
• Current frequencies aren’t supported in current phones. Hardware changes are needed.
• Chipsets need to be modified to add the new frequencies.
• The phones capable of using this new frequency will ship in two years.
• You will be able to watch videos anywhere in the world.
• These frequencies required will work inside a building, it won’t cut off.
• You will be able to have a Starlink Account instead of a Verizon/At&T account, but it won’t put other carriers out of business.
• SpaceX may buy carriers to gain more spectrum. “It’s not out the question, it may happen.”

Starship:
• SpaceX will recover Starship starting next year.
• There is only one V2 Starship left.
• V3 is a radical re-design, initially it might go through some teething pains.
• V3 is capable of over 100T to orbit, fully reusable.
• Starting in 2026, SpaceX will demonstrate fully reusability next year, catching both booster and ship.
• Elon thinks a self-sustaining life on Mars can be achieved within roughly 25 years.

AI:
• A rough rule of thumb is 10x more compute will double the intelligence.
• Elon thinks we will continue to see intelligence scale all the way up to where most of the power of the sun is harnessed for compute.
• Human Intelligence is currently plateauing due to low birth-rates and population declines. It will eventually start declining.
• Elon guesses AI will be smarter than absolutely everything starting next year.
• By 2030, Elon guesses AI will be smarter than the sum of ALL humans.

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