The rare earths issue has been known for at least 33 years. Deng Xiaoping made it clear at the time that China was deliberately carving out a global niche in rare earth extraction and processing. Over the decades they came to control the lion’s share of the market yet few in the West considered the national security implications if China ever chose to use that leverage.

Rare earths are essential for modern technology including smartphones, electric vehicles, advanced electronics, and military systems. The good news is that these rare earths, which are actually metals, are not rare at all. They are found widely in Earth’s crust. The bad news is that extracting and processing them is energy intensive and environmentally dirty work.

The current export block will likely be resolved soon because China overplayed its hand and because Trump refused to back down and responded forcefully. Some accommodation will probably be reached. The risk is that once that happens, the world will simply kick the can down the road and the next time China seeks to blackmail global supply chains they will be stronger and at some point countermeasures might no longer work.

The solution is simple and urgent. The rare earths lever must be taken away from China by building production at scale. The technical part is straightforward. The hard part is overcoming regulatory, environmental and energy obstacles.